By Haider Abbas
For the first time, since the tensions between India and China, had started in May 2020, India, which had been recuperating after a loss of 20 soldiers at Galwan valley on June 20, 2020, is looking to be a bit upbeat as it has started its naval exercises with Japan in the Arabian sea which is to answer China in its own coin, as Japan and China had been civilisational rivals. The NDTV on September 28, 2020 1 informed that ‘ Indian Navy and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) ships conducted operations in close formation at JIMEX-2020, the 4th edition of India-Japan Maritime bilateral exercise, held in the North Arabian Sea from September 26 to 28’. Through the exercise India has given two signals in one- go. To China now it is India with Japan by its side and to China (and Pakistan too) again, to keep an eye on Gwadar Port, in Balochistan, Pakistan, where the CPEC ends for China to carry its exports to the whole world.
The forming of QUAD has started to show its implications, towards which I wrote an article in CounterCurrents.Org on September 5, 2020 2 ‘How ‘Quad’ to Counter China on the lines of NATO ’. These bilateral exercises in Arabian sea, in which ‘weapon firings, cross deck helicopter operations and complex surface, anti-submarine and air warfare drills’ were put to force, assume all the more importance, for the sake as Israel and UAE are in-togetherness to make an intelligence base in Socotra Island in Yemen-to keep an eye on Gwador too and to thwart the China and Pakistan project. I also recently had written an article exclusively devoted to Socotra Island endeavour published in CounterCurrents.Org on August 20, 2020 3 ‘Israel to keep an eye on Pakistan via Yemen’.
It will be interesting to note that Japan stance with India has come even when Chinese president Xi Jinping had recently wished Japan president Shinzo Abe a ‘speedy-recovery’ 4 and Pakistan PM Imran Khan too also had expressed the same 5 but Japan has its priorities settled with US, as QUAD which has India, Australia and US apart from Japan, is the baton with which Japan wants to counter China. Apart from this QUAD which will encircle China, there is also a group emerging with India, Israel, UAE, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and other Arab countries at the end of the road to make it happen and it is very likely that US will also join the exercises ( in Arabian sea) which it had already been doing, since June 2020, when it had sent three of its military aircraft carriers in South China Sea, The Japan Times had reported on June 21, 2020 6 .
The ‘developements’ hence are just growing towards their final spill-out as the world is just waiting for the outcome of the US November 2020 elections towards which US president Donald Trump has already declared that he ‘won’t commit to peaceful transfer of power’ as reported by BBC.Com on September 24, 2020 7 , for the street-power he yields throwing democracy to the canons! Despite the US establishment (Pentagon) against him, no wonder, he has accused that Pentagon leaders want war to keep contractors happy, told TOI on September 8, 2020 8 . India is now to be constantly by the side of US and has taken up the cudgels in Maldives too, as Maldives has entered into a deal with US, reported The Economic Times on September 14, 2020 9 and only six-days later India too came forward to provide with 250 million USD aid to Maldives without conditions, according to ZeeNewsIndia.Com on September 20, 2020 10 which is to specify that US and India are together to make the tide difficult for China in Indian ocean too. I had tried to put into perspective about the Indian and US moves in one of my article ‘China Live-and-let-live message to India via Maldives, cautions about US’ published in MuslimMirror.Com on September 26, 2020 11. India is therefore now counterbalancing China with Japan and has taken a jump into Maldives with US support. Hence, India is now on its next level to meet up to China.
The world has never been so dangerously placed as it is right now. US-China war games are already in South China Sea, China and India are locked in border disputes, Pakistan is in aid to China to deal a blow to India, Turkey and Greece are raring for a war in the Mediterranean sea, Gulf-states are all in peril over wars in Yemen, Libya, Syria, Iraq and a KSA-Israel-US joint war on Iran is well on the cards too, as this is perhaps what Trump will surely like to add to his portfolio. Afghan-Taliban are on a verge of taking over Kabul but circumstances seem to be heading the blood spilled out on the streets, and this all is just waiting for the US elections to decide. May be once Trump wins over, US might overturn to stay in Afghanistan! Who knows?
All the Arab states along with Israel want Trump to win and PM Modi cannot imagine anyone else apart from Trump. After the win of Trump a war on Iran will obviously make China to retort as China and Iran have entered into a 400 billion USD ‘trade and military’ deal and it would splurge its ramifications on China and Pakistan on what is called as CPEC, which US and India want dead at every cost. But, even if Joseph Biden wins, the probables will remain the same because the US establishment, where-in lies the real structural power is however to undergo no change.
The beginning towards the end seem to have started as Armenia and Azerbaijan have gone to war. Azerbaijan buys its weaponry from Israel, Turkey supports Azerbaijan and for it Pakistan supports it too, Russia is supporting Armenia as it supplies its weapons to it and Russia supports Turkey against Greece, Turkey and Israel are foes but are supportive of Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Israel are enemies but are aligned over Azerbaijan, Iran is supporting Armenia and has called for a dialogue between the two! European nations out of their animosity of Turkey are supporting Armenia, hence, a nation is a foe and a friend at the same time. US anyhow wants Russia and Turkey to lock-horns as that would smoothen a way out for Arab states, Israel, US and India alike as Turkey has rallied for Kashmir which India has loathed. It is in this grave unfolding scenario the world is waiting for the results of US elections, but even before it India and China might start to flex-muscles in the Himalayas as a probable war is now almost on its brink. One thing is however becoming clear that the world would be a different place after the US elections, already half beleaguered by the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.
The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner. He is a media analyst and writes on international politics.