By Mubin Raza Khan
Well, Trump in office for the second term is what seems to be the reality at this point in time. Prediction would be a heavy word to use for someone living outside the US, so I would reconcile myself with words like Conjecture or a Guess!
Most might not wish to see Trump having a second term given his reluctance to condemn the White Supremacists in the first debate and his initial restriction on travel to US for citizens of some Muslim countries.
Most people of color do not want to see him in the White House for another four years because of his subtle criticism of BLM movement in the garb of violence following the Floyd tragedy and also because of his lukewarm reaction to the general mishandling of blacks by law enforcement agencies in different states.
Many do not agree with his nomination of Judge Amy Barrett, a textualist, because of her anti- abortion views, her instances of siding with police and prison guards in the use of excessive force, to the supreme court this late in his term.
Many elderly people do not want to see him take a second term because of diluting the ACA (Obama care) that might further be up for repeal, directly affecting those having pre-existing conditions.
Environmentalists and scientists do not like him as he is constantly undermining them and their work and his latest “Biden would listen to the scientists” was the last nail in the coffin.
Common Americans feel that his handling of Covid-19 has been quite pathetic which has cost more than 225,500 lives so far and counting. His “not much”, when asked if he could have done differently, is like rubbing salt in the wound.
Many educated Americans feel that during his term America has lost its hegemony in the world, and some even think that he is a threat to the national security because of his frequent tweets. His latest being the re-tweet of a conspiracy theory regarding THE operation in Abbottabad during Obama’s time.
Latino voters are still not happy with him because of his negative portrayal of them bringing ‘drugs, crimes and rapists” to the US. Chinese Americans are not with him either because of his on record attack on them because of China. “Ask China” he said to one of the Asian- American reporters when questioned about the increasing number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Rose garden briefings in May.
Despite all of these, Trump is most likely to win because for the Land of the Dreams, there can be nothing more enchanting than money and Trump knows how to make it, not only for him but for the country as well. Stocks went all time high in his term (S&P 500 above 3500, DJI above 29,000 and Nasdaq above 12,000).
People want jobs and they believe that their job loss during the Pandemic was because of Covid-19 lockdown and not because of Trump’s bad policies.
Americans are tired and scared of wars so they view Trump meeting with North Korea and many others a success in avoiding a confrontation.
Some are not clear on Biden’s policy on fracking. They are also worried about losing their jobs in oil sector if the price of oil goes down to an extent where fracking is not profitable anymore. Many do not buy the sustainable energy policy of Biden at this stage as the developing countries are already sending a lot of emission in the air. They think that oil based energy would still be viable for another fifty years and it is too early to put that much money in renewable energy Utopian project.
Trump’s move from multilateral free trade agreements to bilateral trade deals resulted in imposing tariff on imported goods into US making difficult for China and other countries to fill the American market with cheap products. This has resulted in fair competition with the local manufacturing and job creation. Because of the trade war, farmers were promised compensation up to 28 billion Dollars. Obviously, they would be happy and along with those who got $1000 checks at the start of the Pandemic.
The other important point is that Trump has been successful in striking fear in majority about the minority people of color with the currency of fake news. Some sort of clash of culture and race is sailing underneath the surface in the line of right wing politics. Last time, when common Americans voted for Obama, there was some sort of pride in electing the first black president to office but this time somehow BLM movement appears to have benefitted Trump more. Unfortunately, it takes generations of education and humility to get rid of racism and in democracies voters are to be divided and somehow race and religion do become (though illegal) some of the criteria for that divide, not only in the US but all over the world.
Right wing Indians are happy to ignore Trump’s ” They don’t exactly give straight count” to having “filthy” air, so long as Trump’s policies align well with the kind of politics done back home.
Assumption that Trump could be defeated by accentuating the mismanagement of Covid-19 alone appears naive to say the least. But for the actual result we have to trust in the wisdom of Americans to choose the best candidate for them.